Latest Prognosis: The Previous Prognosis was False
It doesn’t really matter what culture you live in, really. It makes no difference if you still might feel warm and cuddly somewhere in good “old” Germany or cold and desolate in some obscure corner of the US or, heaven forbid, be a part of that vast majority of humanity that can only dream about the comforts we wrestle over up here at the top of the prosperity pyramid. Everything we enjoy here comes with a certain amount of risk. The risk that we could lose it, that is.
The difference between “us” and “them” here is an illusion we affluent ones have succumbed to regarding this inherent risk: We have come to imagine that risk is avoidable. Whether it’s the latest political discussion about the coming retirement system meltdown in Germany or, say, the feeble discussion about the ongoing drought in Las Vegas, the prognosis we invariably gravitate and cling to is the one that minimizes this risk. In other words, we’re always looking for the easy way out and will believe the first easy-way-out salesman who comes along.
That is why we should have all learned by now to recognize most reform rhetoric for what it invariably is: Humbug (with a capital H). We haven’t. We still invariably buy that old sales pitch.
Systems that work don’t need to be reformed. When “they ain’t broke”, there’s nobody out there trying to fix them. Yet when they have failed, the last thing that anybody wants to do is to admit as much. And why is that? It’s the risk, stupid. Anybody can tweak an existing policy here and there. But who’s willing to throw one out the window and start from scratch? Not you. I couldn’t. And the Merkel government wasn’t elected to do so, either. That would be too risky, you see.
Inventive as we are as a species, we create tools to help us avoid living up to the awful fact of our own lack of courage. One popular tool we invented is that of the prognosis. The positive prognosis, I should say. Instead of facing up to the simple fact that, say, the German retirement system cannot be reformed – or that Las Vegas can no longer provide the water it needs to support it’s exploding population – we provide ourselves with whatever prognosis we will need to carry on as is, business as usual. Just one last tweak here in Germany, see, and everything will be fine as can be, just like in the old days. Just another one or two more years of drought in Las Vegas and the drought will be over for good, right?
It’s human nature, you see. And although nature may be a very unpredictable thing, human nature is something you can always rely on. You can set your clock by it, as a matter of fact. Angela Merkel and Germany’s grand coalition are all too human in this regard. Their latest tweaks are tweaked and it’s time for a little vacation.
Now the clock’s ticking again. The next tweak is right around the corner. And it’s only a question of time until the retirement system, the health system the unemployment system etc. have been tweaked out for good. Then it’s time for the courage part. There’s no other choice open. But my prognosis here: They’ve still got a little more time for that.
PS: I’ve got one more prognosis here, too: France will beat Italy today 2:1.
Comments
Yeah, what you say about politicians who promise reform reminds me of the idea that "it's tough to teach a man something if his income relies on his NOT understanding the lesson."
I think I heard it in reference to tobacco salesmen in the movie An Inconvenient Truth.
V; July 10, 2006 9:03 AM